Pressure property, anti-inflation, affecting the stock market

 Pressure property, anti-inflation, affecting the stock market
mm Fudan Financial and Capital Market Research Center, Professor Xie Baisan
one New Year to worry about monetary policy tightening
this year, the author of China's stock market has been cautious, more pessimistic attitude. Although not in the blog's home page into the sky like snow, 2008 snowman image; but the articles always remind you to be careful.
biggest negative is the stock market this year, monetary policy, and in 2008 mm 2009 on the end of October is completely different, actually getting tight. New Year, when the central bank announced to raise reserve ratio, the feeling was like a giant bomb exploding. student asked me: so worried about, the central bank is not a leader to explain it? raise the reserve ratio is not equal to the monetary policy appropriate exit leniency. the third hh This indicates that China's monetary policy appropriate suspension of leniency and a new round of tightening cycle began. We should be skating on thin ice in the stock market. This is already the third time this year. Every time increased by 0.5 percentage points, the central bank will return the funds of about 300 billion, and is to play a role in long-term, not a role that is finished. This is a big negative, and the central tickets issued in large quantities. China's stock market before 2010 and even different than ten years, A shares (blue chip market in particular) no annual spring market, which shows what the market to the point of tightening money.
Second, the regulation of wild property market, beware of press played a gourd dipper mm inflation
2009 年 1 January, skyrocketing property prices in big cities in China. Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Ningbo, rising property market is full of enthusiasm, Shanghai Yangpu area of the property market rose by 50%,UGG boots cheap, some of Hangzhou for 2 years in building up the relocation of 100%. this crazy urban and rural residents rising property market, especially the The parents formed a tremendous psychological pressure. all the general staff, residents, self-employed, small business who do have fear, any salary below 5000 m 6000 efforts. save 2 / 3 to save tens of thousands of savings a year, equivalent to only buy 1 m 2 square meter property, the wages of urban and rural residents hard-earned money on skyrocketing property market is equal before the drop in the bucket. And a few years ago to Building a new road into the road, in the city's housing prices such as run wild speculation hh
Chinese property market and property market speculation the biggest difference is that the former have a legitimate bank loan, can be 3:7, 4 : 6 in advance; to enlarge several times to fry bank loans, equal to the futures to do more; while the stock is 100% real deal to invest real money, not just transactions.
aligned so round the real estate market second, the third to tighten regulation of mortgage terms, some ways the point is reached, it can be said to be one of the biggest regulatory efforts over the years.
but I have been opposed to levying a , although the Ministry of Finance, Jia Kang, director research institutes such as the introduction of the CPPCC session advocated as soon as possible, but has no clear central leadership and local government proposed to levy, Shanghai is also only a disclosure of the article the next day the rumor immediately. Chongqing, Shanghai, carefully before the pilot is pulled backwards. as it relates to the practical interests of the residents thousands of families, living conditions and social values, morality.
I always thought: the main reason for skyrocketing property is: new home for the 3 trillion. When huge influx of money flow, 90% of the product is overcapacity, oversupply, the money flooding into the inevitable scarcity,Discount UGG boots, non-renewable cities can hold huge amounts of money in the real estate market to go.
But so far, above the control, or focus on stop-gap measures, focus on specific real estate speculators to play! (of course should be played, but the source of it, the central bank yourself ah!) why the money supply more often than foreign countries are much higher then?
If the . I worry that this will really come under the inflation rate.
three markets adjust to the poor, startled, your vegetables,Bailey UGG boots, such as meat!
the author several times recently to Shanghai, his hometown Xiaoshan The jolly-way price survey found prices of vegetables is not that expensive: small vegetables, chicken feathers food: 1.5 per m 2.5 yuan a catty, Ling Bai 4 m 6 per pound, broad beans, shelled 3 m 4 per pound, not the shell per pound to 11 m 12, m 0.4 m 0.5 Kakehi this past per pound of common vegetables actually rose 4 m 4.5 per pound, as well as ginger, garlic, peppers all the 6 m 7 m 12 元 fixing prices. Fortunately, pork, freshwater fishes, fish, etc. also increase little. Some shopping aunt complained that money gotta dish the day tens of dollars, other clothes, daily necessities and also quietly up.
our original estimate before the summer of 2010 inflation (consumer price index for urban and rural CPI) will not come up, that is less likely than 3%. But now, in the strong pressure against the real estate market, a variety of general merchandise Prices rose in secretly. In addition, recently seen in Xiaoshan, township enterprises, private enterprises, wages rose quietly: skilled workers was 5,000 yuan, the general staff was 3500 m 4000 yuan or more, you do not give to speculation the boss of your squid. In contrast,UGG boots, the new city of employment students, staff and other state-owned enterprises and institutions but tightly fixed salary.
conclusion, let me see the next few months the inflation data, not from the total amount of monetary policy to consider asset bubble problems, certainly in a strong high pressure to play the real estate while other prices, but if from the total amount to consider, and then tighten the money supply, the real economy, the stock market collapse will inevitably continue. If the RMB appreciation again, more than a few also cold faster.
four this week, the stock market: pressure property, anti-inflation, affecting the stock market
Monday, two, four, five times the stock market a firm downward impact, Wednesday 87 point rally The market was overjoyed, but soon on Thursday, five down Po Wei, once reached 2665 points, a record low of 8 months, chilling with one of the gas filled bear. specific reasons are: ① the Greek fear of debt threaten the global economy once again dip . ② the eve of the U.S. stock market plunge for the last decade rare, neighboring Asian stock markets fell sharply Friday. ③ British newspaper reports, the bank may speed up the IPO, they worry that the SFC will stop IPO fund-raising for some time, it is hoped that early market , raised $ 5,000,000,000 (about 34 billion yuan). ④ stopped three weeks of Huaxia Bank opened limit down on Friday and fell 0.84 yuan, mainly additional financing, it is fear of the tiger. ④ Hengda Real Estate decided to cut prices 15 % seller, take the initiative to open a precedent for price adjustment, resulting in a jittery real estate stocks. ⑤ reserve rate raised again will be the 10th. ⑥ stock index futures to help reveal the nature of space: stock index futures only if the big money involved, with a lot of money in the far short-selling of contracts, purchase a large number of stock only when the blue chips activated. but not in the big money involved, some individuals, medium and large households out of which many times a day, then played again and again to help down, help empty role, and became a guide for people to do the spot, short money has become their set thinking of many people. This week the hands of a few anti-Zhang Yin has its shadow. ⑦ also introduced this year, so the international board other. ⑧ must speed up the size of the non withdraw. the real estate market down violently, resulting in decreased profitability of banks, and real estate stocks, banking stocks accounted for about 60% weight of the right tape, so difficult to pick up the broader market, SMEs, GEM has also been large spread, of course, believe that the management is not willing to see the bear market trend, the estimated stability and rescue the first initiatives is to slow down the speed to market new issues, there will be a rebound, but not too high, do not have too expectations.